It doesn’t have the sexiness of livestreaming, or the sizzle of Singles’ Day, but one of the most important components of China’s ecommerce and New Retail boom is the thankless task of making it all happen behind the scenes. China’s logistics infrastructure is experiencing some of the biggest, yet behind-the-scenes, changes in the country’s retail industry. Chinese logistics are evolving from fragmented and rudimentary systems, to consolidated ones driven by the internet-connected smart devices, robots and real-time end-to-end tracking and traceability.
Chinese consumer expectations around delivery have become some of the highest in the world. Many purchases are expected to be delivered in less than 30 minutes. And for other goods, if they don’t arrive within 1-2 days, most consumers will go somewhere else, with the exception of some customized products and goods coming from afar. Yet even expectations for delivery times for cross border products are increasingly short, with bonded warehouses bringing them closer to the consumer.
1.88 billion parcels were delivered just in the 10 days starting on Double-11 (Singles’ Day) last year. This gives China the scale to invest in technology and systems. The increase in New Retail and social commerce is driving both shopping and delivery to become a 24/7 business. Investment is also being propelled by lower tier cities, whose logistics infrastructure is behind high tier cities. Tier-3 cities and lower accounted for more than 70% of the growth of Alibaba’s 102 million new customers over the last 12-months, in addition to apps such as Pinduoduo and WeChat which are driving online shopping in the hinterland. The focus is also being driven by fast growth ecommerce categories like food and beverage delivery, which requires improvements in areas such as cold chain.
Logistics is big business in China. In 2017, SF Express IPOed to become the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s most valuable company, while pushing founder Wang Wei’s net worth up to $16 billion. Alibaba’s partner logistics company Cainiao – which accounts for one in every 10 packages sold on Taobao and Tmall – was valued at ¥100 billion ($14.5 billion) a year ago, and like all of China’s logistics giants, is investing in exciting advancements.
Cainiao is evolving from just digitally managing the flow of parcels through e-shipping labels, to digitalising all components of the logistics value chain. This will see 100 million smart devices connected to its IoT (Internet of Things) technologies in three years, including partners such as warehouses, warehouse pickers, equipment, transportation vehicles, robots and management systems. It will also connect the anticipated 100,000 pick up stations such as schools and residential complexes, convenience stores and China’s ubiquitous fruit shops to cut down last-mile delivery costs. To complement this, Ciaoniao will enhance and leverage its Guoguo app which it hopes to serve consumers more than a billion times a year by 2022.
A digitalised end-to-end supply chain enables much more transparency and accountability, which is ever-important for China’s untrusting consumers. Such transparency is a key selling point allowing 17.5° oranges to sell for twice the price of similar brands of oranges that originate from the same region for example.
We expect domestic players’ investment, connections and local know-how will continue to see the Chinese logistics brands dominate the China market, and likely expand beyond its borders utilising the developing systems and technology. Foreign players won’t be helped by the recent trade war-related scandal which saw Huawei packages ‘misrouted’ in China by Fedex, whether proven to be intentional or not.
For brands selling in China, ensure you are dialled into the optimal logistics providers and their systems to guarantee customers will have the best possible experience. It will be difficult to compete otherwise. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
WeChat now boasts 1.1 billion active users, with most being in China. That’s great news for Tencent who have prodigious insights into the online, offline and commerce behaviour of a large swath of Chinese consumers. Yet its almost-100% saturation of China’s online population also presents challenges to Tencent, who is having to shift its strategy from growth by acquisition to extending the utility of WeChat and its data. To make things tougher, AI-driven competitors such as Douyin are cannibalising the screen time users spend on WeChat through services that are easier to use and more entertaining.
Tencent isn’t sitting still. It’s made some structural shifts in its strategy such as seeking to entrench itself in more industry-related applications from health services to public transport, and this month announced it joined the race for auto intelligence, aiming to provide car makers networking services, algorithms for autonomous vehicles, and location-based services.
Nevertheless, WeChat remains committed to its bread-and-butter (or rice-and-soy) consumer base, evolving with services such as authentic story telling, Official Account live streaming and new Little Red Bookesque-social commerce features – all enriching the consumer experience and presenting exciting opportunities for brands.
For many brands, finding success with WeChat isn’t just about strapping on new services as they are launched, but changing the structural approach to how they view WeChat – much like Tencent has done. The good old approach of pushing out content week in-week out on WeChat rarely works these days. More than half of WeChat Official Accounts are losing followers and the open rate of WeChat articles dropped from 17% to 6% between November 2015 and August 2018 according to social media management platform KAWO.
To increase engagement on WeChat, more brands would be wise to view the platform less as a one-to-many broadcast tool and more as a personalised and targeted interface to connect with and understand the target market. CRM capabilities on WeChat allow brands to gather information about their fanbase far beyond the standard name, avatar, gender and location that come by default. WeChat’s expanding suite of services and subsequent touch points allow brands to track individual’s preferences, behaviour and propensity to engage with different things. This data can be complementary to other insights that can be tracked such as how the user followed the WeChat account, whether through a specific article, promotion, at an offline event, store or scanning a QR code on packaging.
WeChat also lends itself to engaging initiatives such as chatbots, which offer brands a form of simple AI allowing them to connect with their customers’ personal needs and have related dialogue – over and above the usual WeChat messaging quotas – directing them to relevant content and services. Data from these interactions can feed into the CRM system to provide a view into consumer needs that can be coupled with other insights to build truly meaningful consumer-led propositions.
Richer CRM data allows brands to have more targeted, localised and personalised communications over WeChat. Interactions with consumers can be much more resonant based on whether the consumer has a family or is single, lives in Shanghai or Shenyang, if they like lace or leather or the time of the day they are most responsive. In a market as competitive and cluttered as China, particularly with more brands engaging with AI for targeted and personalised interactions, it is fast becoming a minimum requirement to continue to grow engagement. China Skinny can assist to develop your strategy for this.
For our Shanghai-based readers, China Skinny’s Andrew Atkinson will be presenting the Heath Ingredients & Food Ingredients Asia event next Wednesday 19 June discussing headline trends influencing consumer needs across China’s health food categories. More information here. Please let us know if you’ll be there. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
Remember when you’d see the big tricycles stacked metres high with polystyrene, rubbish and furniture cruising the streets? Or the vividly-coloured Facekinis poolside or on the beach? Or how about the infants with split pants on a cold Beijing day? They were all China novelties that have largely disappeared from the bigger cities. Yet with each disappearing quirk, a new curiosity has arisen to ensure that there is never a dull day in China.
One area that has recently taken on a life of its own is beauty. Fashion, haircuts and even hair colours are becoming more varied and diverse daily. It is not uncommon to see young Chinese spending 40 minutes on a photo editing app polishing their latest selfie, or a young man in a public place diligently applying mascara – not just representing the exponential rise of male makeup, but also that younger Chinese are confidently challenging traditional social norms to be what they want to be, unfazed by state media’s direction on how to behave.
The pursuit of beauty has been important since ancient times in China. In the Tang Dynasty, makeup became a part of everyday culture, with women applying foundation powder, blusher and a dusting of light yellow powder. Bluish black eyebrows, lipstick, painted on dimples and ornamental forehead flourishes were also added. Whilst beauty is a little less novel than it was 11-14 hundred years ago, it is as relevant as ever for Chinese consumers and something that many of us should take note.
China Skinny has compiled numerous pieces of research asking consumers how they would spend extra money if they received it. Beauty always scores highly, often the top way young millennials would spend the windfall. Many Chinese will directly correlate the way they look with their chances of success – in both their personal and professional life.
One of the most poignant illustrations of the importance of beauty in China is the soaring segment of cosmetic surgery. Unlike in the West where patients are older when looking to have work done – more than 75% are over 35 in the US – 54% of Chinese going under the knife are under 28. This is fuelling an industry expected to be worth ¥360 billion ($52 billion) by 2023. Last month’s IPO of plastic surgery app So-Young soared 44% on its first day of trading and has settled to a value of around $1.5 billion. Almost 2 million users are on the app monthly, 79% more than a year ago.
In addition to the obvious beneficiaries of plastic surgery, cosmetics and fashion, many other categories are touched by China’s beauty obsession. For example, health supplement purchasers are often motivated by beauty benefits – even with target markets you may not expect like the 20-year olds buying anti-aging pills. Categories such as food and beverage are heavily influenced by the quest for beauty, with an increase in healthy food demand resulting from how they can improve appearances such as skin and hair. The fast-growing fitness industry is also heavily swayed by the aesthetic outcomes. The good news is that it isn’t just the Pechoins, L’Oreals and J&Js of the world who stand to benefit, with the majority of Chinese consumers showing interest in niche beauty brands.
The free-spending young Chinese in particular often strive to stand out amongst the masses, and looking good is considered a key component of this. When brands are communicating to their target markets, they should bear this in mind wherever plausible. China Skinny can help determine if and how this all fits for your products or services.
In other news, China Skinny has moved its Shanghai HQ to a bigger and better office. We’re still in central Jing’An District, a block from our our office on Jiangning Road. We love visitors, so pop by any time for a coffee, tea or just to say ni hao. You’ll find our address here. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
One of the giveaways of a newbie to China is the bafflement about being unable to access Google, Facebook, Youtube, Instagram and Twitter – unless they’re chewing through their data roaming quotas or have planned ahead with a VPN. It quickly becomes apparent that China’s digital ecosystem is unlike anywhere else in the world.
Those same newbies are likely to try and make sense of it all by making direct comparisons of Amazon with Alibaba, Facebook with WeChat and Twitter with Weibo. Yet the Chinese platforms aren’t just different by appearance and namesake; their features and, more importantly, the purpose they serve in the consumer journey are often quite disparate from platforms in the West. In many cases, they are functionally more advanced (often by years) than overseas apps, which has seen companies like Apple, Amazon and Facebook replicating features from Chinese apps.
Many brands understand these differences and focus on localising tactical campaigns to take advantage of Chinese platforms’ rich and engaging features online and offline. Yet a number still miss the bigger picture of how China’s tech giants differ from the West: their touch points with consumers are far deeper, wider reaching and offline than those overseas.
One of the important growth strategies executed by China’s tech companies has been to expand beyond their core industries, even if links seem tenuous to outsiders. We saw this in 2014 when Alibaba began purchasing brick & mortar stores and then again in 2018 with their investment in screen advertising.
There are a number of reasons why this type of expansion has happened much more in China than other countries: 1. In most countries when companies get too large and dominant, they are usually forced to split. In China there is barely a whiff of this; 2. Most of China’s bigger companies with real money to invest are tech firms and State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). As SOEs are comparatively more conservative, there is less competition for big tech companies when making major acquisitions; 3. Traditional channels are less mature and more fragmented in China, enabling lower acquisition costs for market leaders and much more scope for disrupting tech giants to break in; 4. Accumulation of user data is far more liberal in China, providing significant scope for tech companies who already have the data. This enables them to utilise data synergies across new acquisitions, which can help justify paying a higher price for them; and 5. Consumers are much more open the commercial use of their data and appreciate the convenience it brings.
The approach hasn’t just been adopted by China’s famous tech giants though. We’ve also seen lesser-known tech companies utilising their presence, channels and data from their category. For example, mid-sized travel portal Tuniu has tapped into the nuptials industry, launching a marketplace just for wedding photography.
What does this mean for brands? Brands should understand just where Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, Meituan and other niche platforms are playing, even if they don’t appear to have an obvious connection with their industry. Awareness of their reach and subsequent opportunities can help determine how best to partner with and leverage them. Even the biggest brands in China rarely attempt to approach the market alone and will buddy up with one or more of the tech giants. Similar to the many brands who have co-located marketing staff close to Walmart or Carrefour in the West, close proximity to China’s tech leaders is likely to be an increasingly common strategy in China. Contact China Skinny to assist you in identifying these opportunities and recommending how best to leverage them. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
In October 2015, China announced plans that it would be abolishing its one-child policy the following year, in hope of rebalancing its top-heavy population which is expected to see 500 million folk aged over 60 by 2050. The announcement, coupled with the earlier one-child policy changes, had brands selling everything from infant formula to educational toys readjusting their sales forecasts north. Even Disney invested an additional $800 million in the construction of the Shanghai Disney Resort to add extra capacity to account for the fertility spike.
On the surface things started off well, with birth rates jumping 7.9% between 2015 and 2016. But it was always likely to be just a blip. 2016 was the Year of the Monkey, which was a much more desirable zodiac for childbearing than 2015, which happened to be a Sheep Year. Superstitious Chinese don’t want their kids to be the docile followers associated with our woolly friends.
There was also some pent up demand from parents who had always longed for more than one child. Yet for most Chinese couples, the 37-year-old One Child Policy had reengineered the national psyche making it socially acceptable to have a single child. The competitiveness of China’s education system also sees parents invest significant sums into their child’s education and development, coupled with the premium paid for safe food and beverage and other extras to ensure their child gets the best start at life. Most couples consider it too expensive to have more than one child.
Since 2016, birth rates have fallen off a cliff, dropping by 12% in 2018. In another troublesome sign for China’s fertility planners, marriage rates hit record lows in 2018. Couples need to be married in China to legally have a child. Beijing will be banking on the country’s investment in robotics and Artificial Intelligence to help make up for the falling working population.
So should those infant formula brands, Lego, Disney and other companies hoping to sell their wares to Chinese youngins be revising their revenue forecasts down? Not at all. As Chinese families’ affluence rises, a disproportionate share of the increase goes to their child. As they only have one, few cut corners. A child born today will have parents earning 130% more than those born a decade ago. There have been countless surveys with Chinese consumers over the years about how they would spend additional wealth, and a large percentage always cite they’d spend it on their child’s education and development. Even extra budget directed at travel will often be to take the kids away, with families one of the fastest growing outbound tourist segments.
To get a real taste of how important the market for children’s goods and services is, take a trip to the town of Zhili in Zhejiang Province this November. The town famous for its child garment factories has a population of 100,000, which swells to around 350,000 around peak times such as Singles’ Day. The population boost comes from families relocating there in the hope that their kid will become China’s next top child model. Kids can earn up to ¥10,000 ($1,500) a day, with the most popular models reportedly earning a million ($150K) a year. The modelling rates highlight just how lucrative the children’s fashion category is, but also its competitiveness.
Although birth rates are falling, there were still 15.23 million children born in China last year – and a greater portion with affluent parents than ever. Citi Research, in their short video about the infant formula category, summed the situation up well: “having the right route-to-market, especially in the online channel, matters more than the underlying market”. That could be said for virtually every category in China, where there remain enormous target markets still willing to spend, regardless of slowing population or economic growth. China Skinny can assist with your route to market. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
Many brands are aware of how China’s innovations around New Retail, digital and mobile payments are fundamentally changing the way consumers research and buy products. Yet, what is often overlooked is how they are altering the format and even the type of product they buy.
Research was recently published claiming that Chinese mothers are moving away from traditional frozen ready meals, like dumplings and buns, and instead opting for frozen full meal sets such as beef noodles. Whilst this isn’t untrue, our research has found a much bigger trend pointing to a shift away from frozen foods altogether.
On numerous research projects, China Skinny has visited many homes across different China cities. In the kitchens, small freezers are stuffed with once-popular products like bags of dumplings coated with freezer-burn, seemingly untouched for many a moon. The ageing packs are representative of frozen formats falling out of favour with Chinese consumers as alternatives perceived as healthier become more convenient and accessible.
With healthy and natural having become key criteria for purchasing food, frozen options sit many rungs below fresh on the hierarchy of healthiness. That’s nothing new, but what has changed is the accessibility of fresh food, particularly for busy mothers. With stores like Hema/Fresh Hippo, 7Fresh and even the massive RT-Mart now delivering orders within 30-minutes, the incentive to have quick access to frozen products has diminished. There are currently 355 million users of delivery apps in China – a quarter of all Chinese are regularly having food brought to their homes and offices.
While the booming restaurant meal delivery service is cannibalising many food categories and changing countless restaurants and cafés’ strategies, China’s ever-discerning mothers still want an element of food preparation. They wish to have more control over their cooking, ensuring it is fresh when served – not soggy or luke-warm – while still deriving the emotional self-satisfaction of feeling they having played a part in cooking the meal. These factors, coupled with being time-short, have contributed to a stark rise in the demand for ready-to-cook fresh/chilled meals in China.
As brands define the appeal of their products, ingredients, packaging and sizes for the Chinese market, they should also consider the format. Frozen, tinned or other forms of preservation has provided a way for food to make the long trip to China and still be good for sale. While there is likely to long be demand for such food, brands should consider product development for alternative formats that will meet the growing demand for fresh, natural and convenient food.
Food is just one category that is being turned upside down by New Retail, and brands across almost every category should be cognisant of the changes to ensure that they aren’t left behind.
On a not-entirely unrelated tangent, China Skinny will be in Australia later this month with Austcham and Westpac to launch the 2019 Australia-China Business Sentiment Survey results. We’ll share the differences we found from last year’s survey, and how Australian businesses are tracking in this interesting geopolitical and economic climate. The events are in Sydney on 26 March, Brisbane 27 March, Melbourne 28 March, Perth 29 March and Shanghai 18 April. Let us know if you can make any of the events, it would be great to catch up there. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
We have just passed the 200-day mark of the US-China trade war, and what a 200 days it has been! Whilst we are finally seeing some positive signs that an agreement could be imminent, there has been plenty of commentary about the beating that America’s reputation has taken in China.
There’s no discounting that the spat has sped up the rise of nationalism in China, and there are consumers who may have directed their spending away from American businesses, but the impact has been much less severe than it could have been.
If we look back to the row between China and Japan in 2012 over the Daioyu/Senkaku Islands, many Japanese brands were hammered and some even shuttered. Similarly, the South Korean fiasco over THAAD in 2017 was estimated to cost the Korean economy $6.8 billion that year. Apple has attributed its poor results to the trade war, and Ford and GM have had better years, nevertheless all-American brands like Coke have reported no impact, and Nike saw a stunning quarter last December. Even Tiffany & Co. saw a double digit rise in Mainland China sales during November and December of last year.
One of the key differences between the US-China trade war and the disputes with Japan and South Korea is that the propaganda machine has not yet ramped up criticism of the US. China also hasn’t introduced regulations such as it did banning tour groups to South Korea. Such plays wouldn’t be well timed during the already-precarious trade negotiations with the US.
Tourism to the US was a sector that many commentators expected would take a hit as a result of the frosty relations, much like Japan’s visitors fell 34.3% in 2012, South Korea’s dropped 60% between March to October 2017, and numbers sunk at other ‘out-of-favour’ countries like the Philippines and Vietnam.
In late September, Ctrip reported that flight bookings to the US were down 42% for the October Golden Week holidays – one of the busiest weeks of the year for international travel. Other anecdotes have flooded in from travel agencies, echoing similar falls. So it will come as a surprise that Chinese tourist numbers to the US actually looked quite healthy in 2018. Although the national figures are yet to be published, Los Angeles reported a 6.9% increase in Chinese tourists last year to 1.2 million visitors. New York also hit record numbers last year, hosting 1.1 million Chinese visitors. It appeared Chinese tourism to the US took a hit in the early months of the trade war, but by November, the US Commerce department was projecting a 2% increase in Chinese tourists.
Like we’ve noted in previous Skinnies, tourism generally builds an affinity with the country, its cuisine, culture and lifestyles, which has a halo effect on preference towards many other product categories. In a world that seems to be more divided than it has been in a long time, China’s tourist growth to the US is refreshingly good news!
On the subject of tourism, China Skinny’s Mark Tanner will be sharing some insights at the beautiful Terranea Resort in Los Angeles for the Visit California Outlook Conference on February 12 & 13. Please pop by and say ni hao if you’re there. More information here. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
Over the past few years, one of the fastest growing trends in China has been sports and fitness. This has led to the growth of sporting products and services, as well as consequential purchases spanning categories as diverse as vitamins and tourism. The trend is being driven by both the Government who realises the health, social, economic and patriotic benefits of sports participation, and consumers who appreciate the upside in health, and are often seeking more from life.
China’s tech giants have been flirting with the craze for some time, but of late, more are utilising their pools of cash and the ever-increasing capabilities of their apps and algorithms to take things up a notch.
Last week Ctrip announced that they would be subsidising skiing-related activities by ¥100 million ($14.5 million). This follows Beijing’s push leading up to the 2022 Winter Olympics and undoubtedly user data is pointing to a spike in skiing-relating traveller activity.
In late-November the current cool kid on China’s tech block, ByteDance, announced a partnership with the NBA. This will see the league take advantage of China’s short video craze by offering bite-sized content on its Douyin, Toutiao and Xigua platforms. Unlike previous content deals between Chinese tech giants and the NBA, the content will be much more personalised to users’ needs, served directly to them using ByteDance’s clever AI algorithms.
The most interesting recent initiative in China’s sports world was last week’s announcement that Alibaba is offering a ‘Money Ball’ approach to individual sports. Just as professional teams use reams of data to maximise performance, Alibaba is hoping to use analytics to help individuals improve their performance, change the way sports events are managed and – obviously – influencing the related goods and services they buy.
There is unlikely to be another company globally who is better placed to serve and profit from athletes than Alibaba. Alibaba will be able to leverage its far-reaching data sources and customer connection across many of its platforms. These include Tmall and Taobao to sell sporting accessories and nutrition, Fliggy for sports event travel, AliHealth for aching joints and everything else that can go wrong in training, Focus Media for targeted sports-related advertising to users, its New Retail stores and partners such as Intersport, Ele.me for delivery of sports-related stuff for training and events, Youku for paid sports-related content and tipping, the list goes on…
One of the key takeouts from each of the tech giant’s initiatives is the extra user data that they’ll glean, allowing them to better personalise to individual’s needs and behaviours. A survey this month by China Skinny found sport and fitness is the category consumers most seek personalisation – with 44.8% of respondents finding it appealing. Brands should take note of the rise of sports and related categories, and how fans and athletes are participating in the digitally-integrated China. These realities should be integrated into many China marketing strategies – something China Skinny can assist with. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
Since 1990, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has accounted for more than 60% of the growth in global defence spending. In close to three decades, China has built a remarkable armament, with military drones and the odd unreliable stealth fighter, and is making some solid progress with AI. Just like the superpowers before, China aspires to have strong armed forces. But any good military needs good soldiers – for now at least.
Last September we noted the PLA slammed young Chinese males’ high failure rates in fitness tests, attributing unhealthy lifestyles, too many fizzy drinks, masturbation and video games, which has contributed to a complete freeze of new game approvals. But it turns out the Military’s issues with the male gene pool span far deeper.
It seems China has a masculinity crisis. Whilst Beijing has banned hip hop culture and tattoos from TV, for now it is a free-for-all for ‘feminine-looking’ boybands, which has led to much debate online. In September, state media outlet Xinhua declared “these sissies promote an unhealthy and unnatural culture which has a not-to-underestimate negative impact on the youth. The sissy culture, driven by consumption, challenges the public order and worships a decadent lifestyle”. Niángpàonán, or ‘sissy-boys’ has become a popular term online for Chinese males paying much attention to their clothing, hair, and make-up.
In some Chinese cities, males born in the 80s are more likely to own a pair of platform shoes than work boots or cleats. Yet effeminism is less of a concern than other trends seducing Chinese males. One teenager in eastern China bankrupted his parents by tipping a livestream host $37,000, claiming she was his girlfriend. China has more than 150 live stream sites, mostly funded by tipping from the 80% male viewership.
Whilst every male in China isn’t a gaming, live-stream-addicted ‘sissy boy’, as marketers it’s important to consider that this group has more spending power than the total consumption of many countries. They have their own distinct needs and respond differently to marketing than males on the streets of Sydney or Seattle, and even other sub-tribes in China. China Skinny can assist your brand with defining their needs and planning how to best resonate with them.
Not all is lost for concerned parents across China. Their desperation for their one-child to be a boy saw the male:female birth imbalance hit 1.15:1 in 2016 (second only to Liechtenstein). For those wanting their boy to be a hǎohàn – a real man, there are ¥10,000 ($1,400) training camps aimed to tackle the “crisis in boys’ education” and “help them find their lost masculinity.”
On another note, a big hat tip to Alibaba who continue to reach new heights with their 11.11/Singles’ Day extravaganza, growing 27% from last year’s massive base (in RMB terms) to $30.8 billion in gross merchandise value. See the infographic here. JD had similar growth of 26% on their 11-day Single’s Day festival, with sales climbing to $23 billion.
Your Thoughts: We received some passionate responses to our article about CIIE last week, not all of it positive. Over the past week we’ve spoken to a number of brands who exhibited at the event – some considered it a roaring success, other reviews were mixed. We’d love to hear your thoughts if you were there. Similarly please let us know how Singles’ Day went for you. Just reply to this email with any comments or feedback. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
You’ve got to give it to China: This week’s inaugural China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai – the ‘Canton Fair for exporters’ – has attracted representatives from 85% of the countries that the Olympics attracts, all hoping to sell their wares to China.
President Xi Jinping officially opened the expo speaking to political and business leaders from 172 countries. Xi pledged to increase goods imports to $30 trillion over the next 15 years, and services to $10 trillion. The goods figures were $6 trillion higher than the existing target of $24 trillion that the Ministry of Commerce had re-stated just hours before. However the figures are parallel with – actually below – how China has been tracking. China’s goods imports grew 16% last year to $1.84 trillion in 2017. The $30 trillion target averages $2 trillion a year indicating a very unambitious official growth target as Caixin pointed out. Comparing the import growth targets to the rise in GDP is even more underwhelming as illustrated in this graph, posted on Twitter by Economist journalist Simon Rabinovitch.
Among other announcements, Xi vowed to “firmly punish behaviour that encroaches on the lawful rights and interests of foreign companies, particularly IP infringements.” He promised looser restrictions on foreign ownership in the education and health care sectors, expansion of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone to another area, stepping up of cross-border e-commerce, along with reduced tariffs and lower “institutional costs” of imports.
Although many details of the expo have been shrouded in mystery until opening day, the show floor attracted over 3,000 businesses sparing no expense, exhibiting everything from flying cars to Maori food to an estimated 150,000 buyers from across China. To signify China’s importance for global trade, 130 countries are represented in the enormous four leafed clover-shaped exhibition centre, just shy of the 132 who have signed up for Dubai’s World Expo in 2020.
Attending the opening day were around a dozen prime ministers and presidents from countries like Russia, Vietnam, Egypt, Hungary, the Dominican Republic, Pakistan, the Czech Republic, El Salvador, Kenya and Laos, the President of the World Bank, Director-General of the WTO, MD of the IMF, Jack Ma and Bill Gates and Australia’s trade commissioner in the country’s first high-level ministerial trip in over a year.
Like any big show in China, there is the obligatory mascot – Jinbao the panda, commemorative stamps, countless convoys disrupting traffic, and numerous deals announced such as Alibaba’s pledge to bring ¥200 billion ($28.8 billion) of imports over five years and JD.com’s ¥100 billion ($14.4 billion). It is anyone’s guess as to how many of the deals signed this week come to fruition, but the expo is an unquestionably positive step in promoting imports and potentially spreading their presence deeper into the hinterland. See photos of the expo here. All the best to our readers who are at the expo. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
There’s no shortage of coverage about China’s New Retail revolution, its mouthwatering rise of shared bikes and its 227 million active users, along with WeChat, ecommerce, mobile payments and other uniquely China trends such as cream cheese tea and face-kinis. Yet there are many other phenomenons happening in China that attract less attention but are also impacting consumers at a level that brands should take notice of. Here are three trends that Skinny readers are likely to be aware of, but maybe less familiar with the full scale and speed of their rise:
1. Consumer Credit
Consumption has been the most robust sector of China’s economy in recent years, with growth trucking along at double digits as long as most can remember. While other factors such as manufacturing, investment and house prices haven’t maintained the same momentum, three contributors have allowed Chinese consumers to defy the odds and keep spending more and more: record consumer optimism, soaring wage growth (with China’s hourly incomes now exceeding every Latin American country except Chile) and rising consumer credit.
Although China is well known for its high saving rates, these figures are skewed by older folk. The younger generation haven’t lived through the same periods of austerity and feel much less need to save for a rainy day. They’ve seen their wages grow every year, their parent’s real estate assets soar, and have been lured by the bright lights of consumerism – often calling on easy credit to spend more than they earn. Between 2015 and 2017 consumer credit grew fivefold, with those aged 24-35 making up more than 70% of consumer borrowers in China.
2. ByteDance’s Douyin
At a much more micro level, some brands looking for ‘the next WeChat’ could be heartened by the remarkable rise of Douyin and the overall ascent of short video. Launched less than two years ago, Douyin’s user numbers have quadrupled since January to boast more than 150 million daily active users watching an average of 82 short videos a day. The 15 second videos serve Chinese millennials’ craving of instant gratification, to fill any down-moment with cheap entertainment. Douyin’s growth has been so drastic that even Tencent has felt threatened and banned the service on WeChat last month. Douyin’s popularity and rapid rise has enabled fast-moving brands to use the platform to build awareness and preference with those indebted young consumers at a fraction of the cost of the more crowded and mature platforms like WeChat, Tmall and Weibo.
What makes Douyin, and its sister app Musical.ly, special is that they are two of the few Chinese apps that have been able to crack the elusive Western markets. Douyin, known as Tik Tok outside of China, was the most downloaded iPhone app in the world in Q1 of this year. Any concerns in the US about the Chinese Government monitoring your every move, something which has plagued brands such as Huawei and even WeChat, seems to be irrelevant for the Western millennials shooting and watching short videos on Tik Tok.
3. DJI Drones
Drones, while not on the same scale as consumer finance or Douyin, are making an impact across many sectors in China. One company leading the way – DJI – has beaten out formidable American competitors such as GoPro and 3DR and now owns 70% of the world’s drone market. DJI’s confidence is represented by their new HQ being built in Shenzhen complete with a skybridge for testing drones and rings for fighting robots.
DJI is creating efficiencies in industries as diverse as agriculture and food delivery, which will have a downstream impact on supply and consumption in China. It is representative of increasing automation modernising China’s supply chain and logistics, particularly in the online-to-offline categories. DJI is symbolic of the rise of China’s ambitious mega-businesses who are investing real money in R&D, while remaining nimble and long term-focused to lead their category. Expect more to come.
Those are just three of the numerous developments coming from China daily, many which are likely to be relevant to your brand, or how you market it. Agencies such as China Skinny will ensure you keep up with those trends and develop a plan how to make the most of the opportunities they bring.
Speaking of trends, China Skinny’s Mark Tanner will be sharing more in Brisbane next Thursday July 5 speaking at the ACBC-Brisbane Airport Welcome for the Air China Direct Flights Between Beijing and Brisbane. If you’re at the event, please pop over and say ni hao. More information here. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
There are many relatively unknown cities in China with GDPs as large as countries. For example, the city of Zibo has an economy the size of Panama’s and Tangshan’s GDP ranks up there with New Zealand by some measures. These smaller cities are helping drive China’s consumer demand, and by proxy, the global economy. Morgan Stanley forecasts that lower tier cities will account for two-thirds of the increase in consumption between now and 2030.
As China’s biggest cities have become the most crowded and contested markets on the planet, more and more brands are looking to cities like the Zibos and Tangshans where growth is often faster and competition less fierce. We only need to look at FMCG which has been growing 2-3 times faster in lower tier cities than big cities over recent years. In tourism, the 10 fastest growing airports by passenger numbers are all tier 2 cities and below. A third of all Cadillacs sold in China were bought in tier 3 & 4 cities.
Yet while it’s become common to talk about China’s less-competitive lower tier cities, brands shouldn’t just be throwing darts at maps and reviewing GDP figures in determining where to focus. Consumers in many lower tier cities don’t yet have a level of sophistication to demand many products and services.
Before looking to the hinterland, brands should critically assess consumer behaviour and preferences in those cities. Lifestyles, climate and travel habits are often as much of a contributor to demand for a product than GDP per capita. Ecommerce data, although much less developed than tier 1 and 2 cities, can also provide hints into potential demand. Even local government policy can impact consumer demand – just look to Electric Vehicles, where six cities contribute to 40% of sales.
In many cases, the hyper-competitive cities like Shanghai and Beijing can still be the most lucrative markets to target. They have become incredibly wealthy with GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power now comparable to Switzerland. They have been wealthier longer, were allowed to travel abroad sooner, and as a result, have much more mature and sophisticated tastes. As a result, they are more ready for some Western products and services.
With both cities having more than 20 million people, just focusing on specific demographics or districts can itself produce material sales and a beachhead for further expansion.
A good example is American wholesaler Costco. Four years of testing the water with cross border commerce has given them confidence in demand for their products and formats. This month they announced they will launch two large Costco bricks & mortar stores in Shanghai. Unlike most of the 226 brands who opened their first stores centrally in Shanghai last year, Costco is opening in the outer districts of Minhang and Pudong New Area.
The bulk sales model like Costco hasn’t really taken off in China yet. Consumers have smaller kitchens and less storage than in the US, lower car usage for shopping, and a preference for freshness. However Costco is likely to have evaluated the last 4-years of ecommerce sales data to make informed decisions. If it will work anywhere, Minhang and far-flung Pudong are good bets. They are affluent areas with many large villa residences and a population who is more reliant on driving for daily needs. Costco’s first 33,000 square metre store opening in April 2019 will have 1,000 carparks. One would hope that they are integrating New Retail into their stores to ensure they are relevant and engaging for consumers.
Whether you are Costco, a fashion brand or selling vitamins, there is no consistent answer about which city is best to target. Brands would be wise to analyse different cities and regions before making a call. The cities a brand chooses to target should be an important factor in developing localised marketing strategies, selecting distributors and even lawyers familiar with local laws and regulations. Agencies such as China Skinny can assist with that. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
The lure of WeChat for brands is clear; last year it drove $32.9 billion of information consumption and $52.4 billion of traditional consumption including travel, food, shopping, hotels, and tourism, according to a report from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released this month. 34% of China’s data traffic happens on WeChat, versus the 14% on Facebook in North America.
There’s no denying WeChat’s enormous impact into everyday life in China as it has progressed to become a near unparalleled marketing tool. Yet its popularity has also made it hyper competitive. Official Accounts now number 20 million, with 3.5 million of those active, raising the bar for any brand hoping to make an impact on WeChat – seeing consumer expectations surge with it.
Last year over half of WeChat Official accounts saw less readership than in 2016. Whilst the way consumers use WeChat is continually becoming more sophisticated, many brands’ WeChat strategies haven’t done much to keep up. Few provide genuine value through entertaining and educational content. Even less build communities that engage and resonate with their target market and potential advocates. And many brands still see WeChat as a one-way communication stream to push content out to followers, and are yet to tap into the plethora of interactive functions available in the WeChat ecosystem or integrate offline touch points.
In most cases, WeChat initiatives do cost money. Many brands realise this and allocate a material budget for WeChat marketing. China Skinny gets many approaches from brands wanting a ‘WeChat campaign’, but often haven’t even defined their target market, positioning or what makes them unique from the thousands of other brands in their category. Without having these foundations, investing in WeChat will often be throwing good money after bad.
Although we hear so much about marketing opportunities on WeChat, in some cases an Official WeChat account isn’t appropriate for a brand. Take a small tourist attraction overseas for example. For many Chinese tourists, they are likely to only ever visit it once – and it will be just one of many places they’re seeing on their holiday. So few travellers will go to the effort and care enough to follow something that will fill their WeChat account with content that isn’t very relevant. Nevertheless, even if the attraction doesn’t have an Official Account, WeChat can still be very effective for that tourism business using less traditional advocacy initiatives or payments.
Brands shouldn’t blindly just invest in a traditional WeChat account just because everyone is talking about WeChat. They would be wise to ensure that they have the foundational strategy defined first and then consider the context of WeChat with regard to their product or service and positioning. Agencies such as China Skinny can assist with this.
For our British and European-based readers, China Skinny’s Mark Tanner will be in London at the Clavis Insight 2018 EMEA eCommerce Accelerator Summit on June 6 sharing ecommerce industry trends and case studies alongside GSK, L’Oreal, Unilever and PlanetRetail. More information here – we hope to see you there. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.
China Skinny worked with Austcham to deliver the the 2018 Westpac Australia-China Business Sentiment Survey which was launched today in Sydney. Arguably the most concerning finding was the poor utilisation of digital platforms. Whilst we found the majority of respondents recognised innovation in technology, media and communications will be the number one trend shaping businesses in China for the next 3-5 years, just 16% currently have a detailed China digital or ecommerce strategy in place.
Chinese consumers and business people are among the world’s most engaged users of digital channels, spending an average of 200 minutes a day on their smartphones. The country’s ecommerce market is larger than the rest of the world combined and worth over $766.5 billion last year – more than 50 times the size of Australia’s online market.
A closer look into which businesses are proactively responding to digital/ecommerce opportunities shows that it can a powerful tool for B2B sectors. We found respondents from some of the least traditional digital industries leveraging online channels to their advantage, from facilitating instant B2B payments via mobile to relationship building. This position was supported by the survey which showed the B2B sector of ‘Professional and Business Services’, to be the most developed in this space, with +6.9% more likely to have a detailed plan in place.
Limited Diversification Of Digital Channels
In addition to the need for more businesses to establish a strategy, the survey also highlighted the importance of Australian businesses expanding their focus beyond WeChat and their own websites, which were the top two channels used to sell their products/services.
On the surface, it was promising to see Australian businesses embracing WeChat as the number one channel used to sell, as social commerce presents significant opportunities for clever social campaigns and advocacy-based sales. However, scratching the surface, the popularity of WeChat and own websites hint to a relatively primitive online strategy and reluctance to invest across multiple channels. Marketing and branding, logistics, warehousing and catering to the size of the market were cited as the biggest challenges for employing and growing ecommerce in China.
Whilst this expanded channel approach is recommended, it is important for businesses to understand that ecommerce in China is hyper-competitive and expensive to enter and maintain, particularly so for Tmall and JD. For many businesses, these two channels still present the significant opportunities – even after cost and competition is considered – yet there are gains to be had across niche and category-specific platforms, such Kaola, Red, Ymatou and VIP.
Extending the channel analysis further, the results suggest that Daigou’s are not being leveraged to their full potential, with just 3.7% of businesses using this channel to sell. Although not relevant for every category, some analysts estimate that Daigou collectively sent as much as US$470 million worth of Australian products to China in 2016 and are contributed significantly to the success of some of Australia’s highest profile products in the market such as Swisse, Blackmores and A2.
Cross-border commerce continues to be one of China’s hottest categories, with the number of ecommerce users who shopped abroad increasing from 34% in 2015 to 64% in 2017. Australian products’ enviable reputation is confirmed as the top origin for food for 44% of shoppers (iResearch). Nevertheless, just 13% of businesses rated cross-border as a top trend, suggesting that this area also represents an under-tapped opportunity for Australian businesses in China.
Looking Beyond Sales
The benefits for brands of a well-developed digital plan stretch far beyond sales. Ecommerce has become a powerful platform for marketing, integration into bricks & mortar and research – the data and behavioural insights derived from just Alibaba and JD boasts a sample of over 750 million consumers.
In the survey, we found businesses such as Metcash leveraging purchase behaviour made online to inform optimum product portfolios to sell offline in lower tier cities. Likewise, architects Woods Bagot use big data to inform optimal design of their mixed-used retail centres.
What Is The Opportunity Cost Of Not Having A Detailed Digital Strategy?
The analysis of the survey data showed there to be clear advantages to having a detailed strategy in place. The 16.2% of businesses with a developed plan were:
- +11.7% more likely to turn a profit compared to the average between 2016-2018 (Forecast)
- +18.1% more likely to state that China revenue would outpace other markets, and;
- +11.6% more optimistic about the 12-month outlook compared to those without a plan.
The full report contains a trove of interesting findings from challenges, risks and competition to macro influences. The findings deliver a valuable perspective into the overall health and opportunities for Australian businesses in China. They also provide a performance benchmark for any foreign firm trading with China, not just Australian.
“Analysis by the Environmental Working Group found that 160,000 people living in the region may be harmed by pig waste … pigs are treated with antibiotics, vaccines and insecticides, all of which eventually pass into the lagoons, which have been found to contain toxic chemicals, nitrates, parasites, viruses and more than a hundred strands of antibiotic-resistant microbes, including salmonella, streptococci and giardia. People die with distressing regularity in the waste.”
Your mind will likely jump to images of pig farms in Henan or Sichuan province, yet the exert was taken straight out of a Rolling Stone article on the hog industry in North Carolina; America’s pork-producing heartland where the country’s largest pork producer Smithfield is located. In 2013, Smithfield was acquired by the Chinese conglomerate now known as WH Group for $7.1 billion. Due to lower pig-feed prices, larger farms and loose business and environmental regulation, it is 50% cheaper to produce pork in the US than China, prompting China to outsource some of its environmental and human costs abroad. The Smithfield acquisition has been so successful, WH Group has subsequently made similar purchases in Poland and Romania.
Whilst we could fill thousands of newsletters with similar examples from toxic Chinese farms, the North Carolina exert is representative of a broad trend that is happening in China as it becomes wealthier, moves up the value chain and sees its citizens demand more.
China’s outsourcing spans far beyond food production. As China’s labour costs continue to soar and environmental regulation gets tougher, many manufacturers are looking towards South and Southeast Asia – and probably Central Asia and Eastern Europe as infrastructure improves with Belt and Road initiatives. While China celebrates its reduction in coal consumption and improving environment, it is offloading surplus coal to an outdated dirty coal plant on the coast of Kenya that it recently financed, poised to become the country’s largest polluter. China recently built a $250 million fast fashion factory in Ethiopia in addition to other significant manufacturing investments and agricultural production like in many other countries in Africa.
The trend certainly isn’t a new phenomenon. Similar outsourcing happened with the British empire, and more recently with American multinationals who ironically outsourced much of their dirty industry to China. In short, it is another indicator of how the world is pivoting.
From a purely commercial perspective, the allure of selling cheap commodities to service Chinese consumers’ ever-growing appetite while polluting lagoons, rivers, land and people may appeal in the short term, there are some factors indicating that it may not be sustainable in the medium-long term. There are the obvious hideous effects of the pollution, but also the fact that through technology and increasing infrastructure investments in poorer countries across Asia, Africa, Eastern Europe and Latin America, the market is likely to see a rise of large scale competitors bringing down the overall price of commodities.
From a branding perspective, Chinese consumers are trading up across almost every category from smartphones to dairy. Well marketed brands from developed nations are able to charge a premium based on the exemplar reputation their country has, playing well to this premiumisation trend. But this comparative advantage shouldn’t be taken for granted. Stories such as Smithfield’s pork producers will be seen by Chinese consumers and chip away at the value of Brand USA as a whole, if proposed tariffs weren’t enough already. Although Chinese place less significance on the environmental impacts of food production than their Western peers, this is changing. With origin being such an important decision driver for many Chinese purchases, it would pay to think strategically. Go to Page 2 to see this week’s China news and highlights.